Document 1:2 (June 16, 2025)
Constraints from Geotemporal Evolution of All-Cause Mortality on the Hypothesis of Disease Spread During COVID |
- - - Copied from document - - - 3.1.1. Summary of Main Features of the Results - (page 180-181) The Results section (section 3) brings to light several main observations: • Geographic heterogeneity of first-peak period excess mortality: Sections 3.1 and 3.2 demonstrate that there was a high degree of geographic heterogeneity in excess mortality in the USA and Europe, with a handful of geographic regions having essentially synchronous (within weeks of each other) large peaks of first-peak period excess mortality (“F-peaks”) and all other regions having low or negligible excess mortality in the said first-peak period. • Temporal synchrony of first-peak period excess mortality: Section 3.3 shows that F-peaks for USA states and European countries were almost all positioned within three or four weeks of one another and no earlier than the week of the WHO’s pandemic declaration. For a given large-F-peak European country, the F-peaks for all subnational regions rose and fell in lockstep synchrony but showed large variation in peak height and total integrated excess mortality. A similar result was seen for the counties of large-F-peak USA states. • Dramatic differences in first-peak period excess mortality for comparable cities with large airports in the same countries: Section 3.4 compares cities with large airports in the same country (Rome vs Milan in Italy, and Los Angeles and San Francisco vs New York City in the USA) and shows that there was a dramatic difference in first-peak period excess mortality between the compared cities, despite their having similar demographics, health care systems, and international air travel traffic, including from China and East Asia. 4. Conclusion - (page 211) Using high-resolution all-cause mortality data for Europe and the USA, we have shown that geotemporal mortality patterns during the early months of the declared SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are incompatible with the paradigm of a spreading viral respiratory disease. It appears that the excess mortality could not have been caused by a viral pandemic. Instead, • the essential synchrony (within weeks) in mortality hotspots (large “first peaks” or “F-peaks”) immediately following the WHO’s March 11, 2020 announcement of a pandemic, across countries and states on two continents in the Northern Hemisphere, • the absence of a single F-peak-like excess mortality event (i.e., rise—peak—fall or rise— plateau) prior to the WHO’s March 11, 2020 declaration of a pandemic, • the extreme geographical heterogeneity of the magnitude of any excess all-cause mortality as P-score in the time period (“first-peak period”) of the said hotspots, • the striking differences in the occurrences of hotspots (presence or absence) in entirely comparable large cities in the same countries (Milan vs Rome in Italy; New York City vs Los Angeles and California in the USA)
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Document: Constraints from Geotemporal Evolution of All-Cause Mortality on the Hypothesis of Disease Spread During COVID Posted Date: June 16, 2025 By: Joseph Hickey, Denis G. Rancourt and Christian Linard 1 Correlation Research in the Public Interest (correlation-canada.org) 2 Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières (uqtr.ca/PagePerso/Christian.Linard) * joseph.hickey@alumni.ucalgary.ca Link: https://www.preprints.org/frontend/manuscript/23521a68cfb81461e30de5fe7b03fd8c/download_pub - (Opens in new window) |
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